The depression in the Gulf developed into a tropical storm last night and moved across southern Florida today. The tropical storm, named Bonnie, is fairly weak with sustained winds only around 40 mph. If Tropical Storm Bonnie doesn’t dissipate over the weekend, it is expected to hit land near southeast Louisiana. No major impacts to production are anticipated. Traders appear to agree with this forecast considering that NYMEX Natural Gas prices are off 6 cents today to settle at $4.58 for the week.
No other tropical development is expected in the near term. However, 2010 is likely to have an active hurricane season due to the current La Niña conditions. This pattern consists of cool Pacific water temperatures, which recently have been steady near -0.8C below normal. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted 14-23 named storms between June and November.
Posted by Mariya Smolkin of the Commodities Management Group.
Graphic Source: CNE, NOAA