Constellation’s Commodities Management Group principal, Keith Poli spoke on weather, fundamentals overview, pipeline infrastructure and more in October’s bi-monthly webinar. Attendees learned about the current winter 2017/2018 forecast and how it could affect energy markets and energy strategies, where supply and demand is heading into winter, status of the Rover pipeline and key drivers behind market forecast. If you were unable to attend, you can listen to the recording of the October webinar broadcast.
We received a few questions from attendees. Please check out the answers below to see insight into the questions attendees had:
- What is flow direction of Nexus?
Nexus will flow from Kensington in eastern Ohio, west to Wood, Ohio before turning north to connect with existing pipelines in Michigan. This is primarily flowing through DTE Energy and Viking so that the gas can continue and be moved into Ontario, Canada.
Source: NEXUS project
- Given that some gas pipeline projects that have come online recently and there are others that are expected to come online, can we expect any price reduction trends in winter months?
The start of Phase I of Rover, Columbia’s Xpress and other projects should help to move additional gas out of the Northeast (~2 Bcf/d). If weather related furnace demand is strong this could possibly cause a move toward higher prices in Transco Non NY. This possible movement would be because there is additional takeaway capacity out of the Northeast.
However, if we have moderate winter or even just month to month weather shifts, you could see a positive difference in prices. This could occur if winter begins warm and doesn’t get colder until the second half of the season. It is a sustained 1-2 week cold shot that is likely to drive prices versus a 1-2 day cold shot.
- What about expected weather trend for cold in the lower Midwest?
Any cold for late October or November shouldn’t last long as we look to be in a volatile pattern. General lack of Arctic and North Atlantic blocking will prevent cold shots from sticking around. As the current 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks show for first two weeks of November, there is not a lot of blocking in the North Atlantic that will bring consistently cold temperatures to the Midwest by buckling the jet stream.
- What is impact on exports to Mexico if the U.S. exits NAFTA?
The possibility of the U.S. exiting NAFTA, is not widely expected to impact gas demand at this time. Domestic Mexican gas production has been in long-term decline and it is expected that Mexico will continue to seek U.S. imports.
To attend our December Market Intel Webinar for more market insight from our energy professionals, register today.