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Posts Tagged ‘NOAA’

NYMEX Natural Gas Has a Volatile Week: Production Cuts & Weather Forecasts

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On Jan. 23, the NYMEX February gas contract hit a 10-year low of $2.231/mmbtu, a price last seen in March 2002.  Monday began what turned out to be a volatile week as Chesapeake Energy (CHK), the second largest gas producer, announced revisions to their 2012 outlook with an immediate cut in gas production and the possibility of further cuts.  The announcement sent the NYMEX rallying 38 cents, or as much as 17% on Monday and further gains were made throughout the week.  On Thursday, the rally stalled as weather forecasts for February continued to come in warmer than normal, returning…
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Winter Weather Update

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Before the season began, meteorologists predicted a fairly mild winter due to La Niña conditions.  This pattern consists of cool Pacific water temperatures, which are currently around -1.5C below normal.  As we saw earlier this year, a typical La Niña means a bullish summer and active hurricane season.  The expected impact on winter weather is warmer than normal temperatures in Texas and the Southeast but colder than normal in the Northwest part of the county.  However, December 2010 didn’t quite fall in line with these predictions.  

The extremely cold temperatures that have been experienced the past month in the Eastern half of the U.S. are…
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What’s Happening With Tropical Storm Bonnie

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The depression in the Gulf developed into a tropical storm last night and moved across southern Florida today. The tropical storm, named Bonnie, is fairly weak with sustained winds only around 40 mph. If Tropical Storm Bonnie doesn’t dissipate over the weekend, it is expected to hit land near southeast Louisiana. No major impacts to production are anticipated. Traders appear to agree with this forecast considering that NYMEX Natural Gas prices are off 6 cents today to settle at $4.58 for the week.

No other tropical development is expected in the near term. However, 2010 is likely to have an active hurricane season…
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The Implications of Hurricane Alex

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What started out as a tropical storm became Hurricane Alex, the first June hurricane to hit the Gulf in 15 years.

The storm season typically begins later in the summer, and this early activity is evidence of La Niña conditions. A La Niña pattern consists of cool Pacific water temperatures, which recently have been steady near -0.5C below normal. Alex reached land overnight in Mexico, missing the producing region. 

However, nearly 1 Bcf/d of production was shut in due to platform evacuations in anticipation of the storm.  While no other storms are approaching in the…
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Hurricane Forecast Update

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Hurricane experts at both the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the Colorado State University (CSU) forecast team predict an extremely active 2010 season for the Atlantic Basin. CSU has increased their analysis to expect 18 named storms between June and November, including 10 hurricanes with 5 major hurricanes. NOAA’s update calls for a 70% chance of 14-23 named storms, 8-14 hurricanes, and 3-7 major hurricanes over the next six months.

This season will show more activity than 2009 largely due to a shift in the El Niño pattern. Last year, a moderate to strong El Niño (which means above average sea surface temperatures in the…
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