Webinar Analysts: Summer Outlook, Gas Storage Highs, and Future Load Growth
During the March Constellation monthly Energy Market Intelligence Webinar, Constellation’s Commodities Management Group (CMG) provided comprehensive coverage of various significant factors affecting the energy landscape. These included insights into the El Niño weather pattern and its implications for the spring and summer outlook, updates on the state of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, analysis of the natural gas production and storage situation and examination of electric demand growth and changes in the generation mix.
Weather Update
Chief Meteorologist Dave Ryan recapped the warmest ever winter in the U.S. and his expectations for the coming seasons. Ryan anticipates milder spring weather, with below-normal temperatures in the South and above-normal temperatures in the North. However, he expects a hot summer for most of the U.S., especially the Midwest and East, potentially ranking among the top 10 summers in terms of cooling degree days. Additionally, the webinar covered drought outlooks in the West and provided an update on the California water season.
All Things Economic
Chief Economist Ed Fortunato provided an update highlighting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Despite keeping rates unchanged, the Fed signaled possible cuts later in the year. The Federal Open Market Committee left the interest rates unchanged at 4.5% but indicated potential future cuts if inflation approaches 2%. The Fed also plans to continue its quantitative tightening program to reduce its balance sheet. The stock market responded positively to the Fed’s statement, showing resilience against higher-for-longer interest rates.
Natural Gas Fundamentals
The panel of energy fundamentals experts discussed the decline in production due to low prices. Producers have cut three to four Bcf/d in the past month, leading to stabilization in prices. However, questions remain about the stability of these cuts and their impact on market balance in the second half of the year. Additionally, the market is looking for evidence that the cuts will hold or that producers may have to cut production further. Natural gas storage remains bearish, well above last year and the five-year averages due to the warm winter.
Electricity Market Growth
Moving to electricity fundamentals, the webinar highlighted a surge in electric demand from data centers, manufacturing, and plug-in vehicles. This uptick could add the equivalent of California’s entire electricity consumption to the national grid by 2028. The team analyzed this growing demand and discussed the required supply needed to meet the demand.
Market Trends and Temperature
The team concluded the webinar by looking at forward power charts, the “Market Temperature,” and other factors affecting the energy market.
We invite you to join us for our next Energy Market Intel Webinar on Wednesday, May 8th at 2 pm ET. Constellation energy experts will offer detailed and timely updates on factors affecting energy prices such as weather, natural gas storage and production, and domestic and global economic conditions. Register by visiting www.constellation.com/marketintelwebinar.
© 2024 Constellation. The offerings described herein, if applicable, are those of either Constellation NewEnergy, Inc. or Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC, affiliates of each other. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in the webcast by each participant belong solely to the speaker and not necessarily to the speaker’s employer (including Constellation Energy Corporation or any of its affiliates), organization, committee or other group or individual. Constellation does not make and expressly disclaims, any express or implied guaranty, representation or warranty regarding any opinions or statements set forth herein or in the webcast. Constellation shall not be responsible for any reliance upon any information, opinions, or statements contained in the webcast or for any omission or error of fact.