Webinar Analysts: Game On. Then Off
During the January Constellation monthly Energy Market Intelligence Webinar, Constellation’s Commodities Management Group (CMG) covered a range of topics, including a mild start to the winter season, insights into recent Fed activities, robust natural gas production and some energy buyer tips for the new year.
Weather Outlook
Kicking off the webinar, Chief Meteorologist, Dave Ryan, discussed the weather patterns and their impact on energy markets. He mentioned that there was a 10-day cold shot in the United States due to blocking that developed over Greenland and Alaska, which forced cold air to come down from Canada. However, he also mentioned that this cold shot would be brief, and that milder air would return after a week or so through February, due to the ongoing El Niño pattern. There is also potential for blocking to reemerge over Alaska or Greenland, which could force colder air back into the pattern again.
All Things Economic
gave his analysis of the economic indicators such as the jobs report, inflation data and the yield curve. He said that the U.S. economy is strong and resilient, and predicted there is almost no chance of a recession in the next six months. He also predicted that the Fed might cut rates in the first quarter to stimulate growth. He said that this could lead to an impact on the stock market and consumer spending.
Natural Gas Fundamentals
The team of energy market fundamental experts discussed the natural gas storage situation, which was at 3.3 Tcf as of January 5th, 15% above year-ago levels. Recent cold snaps will reduce the surplus, but it would still be above the five-year average by the end of the winter. also explained the impact of global conflicts on energy markets, such as conflicts in the Suez Canal, Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which are vital routes for oil and LNG shipments. These areas could be major choke points and any escalation could trigger a price shock.
The team then covered gas production trends, which have been strong and efficient, especially in the Permian and the Haynesville regions. Producers have been responsive to the price signals and have adjusted their output accordingly. Another highlight has been the recent merger and acquisition activity in the gas sector, such as the Southwestern-Chesapeake deal, which would create the third largest gas producer in the world and the largest in the U.S. The team wrapped up the natural gas discussion commenting on the European gas situation, which have returned to pre-” European Energy Crisis” levels high storage levels. This has kept the prices below $10 per MBTU, which has benefited the New England and New York regions, which import LNG.
Pricing Insights
Brandon Fong, a market fundamental analyst at Constellation. Based on his analysis of energy markets and weather patterns, he offered some insights and suggestions that energy buyers should be on the lookout for as they shape their purchasing strategies.
Market Trends and Temperature
The team concluded the webinar by looking at forward power charts, the “Market Temperature,” and other factors affecting the energy market.
We invite you to join us for our next Energy Market Intel Webinar on Wednesday, February 21st at 2 pm ET. Constellation energy experts will offer detailed and timely updates on factors affecting energy prices such as weather, natural gas storage and production, and domestic and global economic conditions. Register by visiting www.constellation.com/marketintelwebinar.
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