Webinar Analysts: Warm Summer Start, Pipeline Projects and Natural Gas Basis Updates
During Constellation’s June Energy Market Intelligence Webinar, the Commodities Management Group (CMG) provided comprehensive coverage of current and future factors affecting the energy landscape, including a look at the warm start to summer, pipeline projects, natural gas production, storage and basis and the recent DOE orders to keep two plants from retiring.
Weather Outlook
Chief Meteorologist Dave Ryan discussed the upcoming heat wave expected to impact the eastern United States. He predicted that it might be one of the hottest weeks in the month of June on record. The jet stream pattern is shifting, leading to increased temperatures and potential thunderstorms later in the month. Looking further out, July is expected to be warm as well with a forecasted 390 population-weighted cooling degree days and August is a bit more variable, with monsoons driving more moisture and variability into weather patterns, especially in the southern U.S., California and the West Coast.
The variable upper-level pattern this year should produce a variety of storm tracks. Some storms will develop close to home and move into the Gulf Coast or Southeast, while others strengthen farther out, allowing the opportunity for a more significant hit along the Gulf or East Coast. Still others will meander out to sea.
All Things Economic
The panelists then discussed the energy prices in New England, which besides some regions in the Pacific, are the highest in the United States. The discussion touched on the implications of pipeline and offshore wind projects for current and future energy supply and prices. The panelists emphasized the importance of understanding these dynamics to make informed decisions in the energy market.
Natural Gas Fundamentals
Natural gas production is higher year-over-year, about 4 Bcf/d; however, demand is even higher at about 8 Bcf/d. There are fewer rigs (oil and gas) in the ground: 555 for the week ending June 13 versus 590 a year ago. Although storage injections have begun the season high, with seven consecutive weeks of 100+ Bcf, a hot summer will begin to taper volumes going into storage as demand emerges for power generation. Another influencing factor is the price of oil. As oil prices approach $60/bbl, the desire for drilling new wells declines. With less oil drilling, there is less growth in associated gas (gas associated with the production of crude oil), an important cog in the overall natural gas production in the U.S.
Department of Energy (DOE) Interventions
Recent DOE emergency orders have delayed the retirement of two fossil-fuel generation plants under the Federals Power Act’s section 202 (c). Based on summer reliability assessments from both MISO and PJM, the DOE deemed these plants as critical pieces to meet high demand. As strong load growth continues to trend upwards due to high temperatures, demand from data centers and recent energy policies focused on meeting reliability, it may be more common to see plants previously slated for retirement remain open.
Market Trends and Temperature
The webinar concluded with a look at forward power charts, including conversations about “the right time to buy,” the “Market Temperature” and other factors affecting the energy market.
We invite you to join us for our next Energy Market Intel Webinar on Wednesday, July 16 at 2 pm ET. Constellation energy experts will offer detailed and timely updates on factors affecting the energy landscape such as weather, natural gas storage and production, and domestic and global economic conditions. Register by visiting www.constellation.com/marketintelwebinar.
© 2025 Constellation. The offerings described herein, if applicable, are those of either Constellation NewEnergy, Inc. or Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC, affiliates of each other. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. The Webinar, and this written recap, reflect the views, thoughts and opinions of each speaker and not necessarily to the speaker’s employer (including Constellation Energy Corporation or any of its affiliates), organization, committee or other group or individual. Constellation does not make and expressly disclaims any express or implied guaranty, representation or warranty regarding any opinions or statements set forth herein or in the webcast. Constellation shall not be responsible for any reliance upon any information, opinions, or statements contained in the webcast or for any omission or error of fact.