Webinar Analysts: Winter Weather Outlook, Natural Gas Production and Summer Performance
During Constellation’s October Energy Market Intelligence Webinar, the Commodities Management Group (CMG) provided comprehensive coverage of current and future factors affecting the energy landscape, including the impact of the government shutdown on energy markets, winter weather outlooks, natural gas market fundamentals and summer performance recaps.
Weather Report
Thus far, fall has been characterized by a mild to warm weather pattern, with above-normal temperatures in many regions. Overnight heating demand is starting to increase in the Great Lakes and Northeast, but the heating season is expected to have a slow start, especially in the eastern U.S. Looking forward to winter, the forecast leans toward a colder-than-normal winter for the US, especially compared to the 10-year average. Neutral ENSO conditions and potential negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phases could promote cold air outbreaks. The Pacific Northwest is expected to see above-normal precipitation and snowpack, while central and southern California may experience a drier-than-normal winter. Drought conditions are likely to persist in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and interior Northeast.
The 2025 hurricane season has been relatively mild for the U.S., with most tropical storms developing in the Atlantic and curving away from the mainland. No major storms have hit the Caribbean or the U.S. directly this year.
Government Shutdown Impact on Energy
On October 1st the federal government began a shutdown which caused some immediate, short-term effects to energy markets and may have longer-term impacts if prolonged. In the near-term, a short shutdown can cause delays in data reporting and some short-term market volatility. A longer shutdown may delay critical permits for pipelines, generation facilities and other infrastructure projects and may cause market participants to move towards private or subscription-based data rather than the usual consensus, public data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Natural Gas Fundamentals
U.S. natural gas production has been seeing record high numbers, with September averaging around 107.7 Bcf/day up from 101-102 Bcf/day last year. This record production has led to healthy storage levels, well above the five-year average. With all-time high storage levels, there is confidence that there will be enough supply for the winter months.
Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) exports are also strong and are expected to see further growth as new export facilities Calcasieu Pass 2, Corpus Christi and Woodside come online. LNG project financing has been on a record pace with over 7.5 Bcf/d of projects reaching Final Investment Decision since the end of April.
Summer Performance Recap
This summer has seen record load growth, even with lower temperatures, as AI data centers, cryptocurrency miners and industry reshoring has driven a 2% national load growth year-over-year. ERCOT saw a 4.6% increase in power demand year-over-year. On August 18th, the grid nearly set a new all-time peak, but demand response programs and crypto miners helped shave load and avoid surpassing previous records. PJM grew just under 2% and ISO-NE experienced a record number of “duck curve” days, where midday solar output pushed net load below overnight levels. By early September, New England had already reached 100 such days, compared to 107 for all of 2024.
The team also covered recent Department of Energy (DOE) initiatives and the impacts they may have on the energy market. Consumers Energy’s 1.6GW J.H. Campbell Station has been ordered to stay open until November 19th and Constellation’s 380MW Eddystone Power Plants has been ordered to stay open until November 26th. The DOE also has several initiatives to revive the coal industry offering dollars to recommission existing plants and opening federal land for coal leasing.
Market Trends and Temperature
The webinar concluded with a look at forward power charts, including conversations about “the right time to buy,” the “Market Temperature” and other factors affecting the energy market.
We invite you to join us for our next Energy Market Intel Webinar on Wednesday, November 19 at 2 pm ET. Constellation will offer detailed and timely updates on factors affecting the energy landscape such as weather, natural gas storage and production, and domestic and global economic conditions. Register by visiting www.constellation.com/marketintelwebinar.
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